The next tory leader...

The point to my reposte re the Middle East is that plenty of folk bash new Labour and Blair for going to war, including the Tories, but fail to acknowledge that IDS on the day Blair announced the war due to “suspected WMDs” basically just said “yes Tony we’re fully behind you and support your decision completely”. I’m not suggesting that absolves the Labour Party of the time - just that it’s not really an appropriate stick to hit the current incumbents with, especially given there are enough current issues that can be raised.

The economy isn’t in the state it is solely due to Covid - and the state of public services certainly isn’t solely due to it either. That’s a somewhat lazy assertion, the net debt has increased to its highest ever level in terms of both value and as a percentage of gdp - Covid is a major contributing issue to this but there are many more based on decisions they’ve made; be that to have a referendum to inflict the biggest act of self harm any developed country has ever inflicted on itself; or any of the various faux pas the numerous incumbents of the top jobs made - not least Truss and Kwarteng and their ‘fiscal event’.

You are very much entitled to your opinion and I’m no fan of Starmer or how the government has performed in some areas so far, but to suggest there’s no difference after what we’ve seen and suffered for the previous 14 years, particularly the last 5 or 6; it’s worlds apart. The fact the current government has acted maturely and resolved years-long pay issues with train drivers and junior doctors and is attempting the same with nurses and teachers shows they are at least grown ups looking to progress from pointless posturing and stalemates for the greater good.

The winter fuel allowance cut is hugely unpopular and was always going to be controversial, so it clearly isnt being done lightly - but in fairness a bloody lot of pensioners received it who had absolutely no need of it. I’m not convinced the line in the sand is in the right place, some on low incomes don’t quite qualify for pension credit for example - but I don’t wholeheartedly disagree with the theory; maybe a bit of the application.

The freebies thing is a complete non-issue. It really is. Whoever thinks any of the previous pm’s and high ranking cabinet ministers didn’t get gifts of all kinds are naive in the extreme. I’d suggest certain former government ministers might not have been quite as open in their declarations… Mr Johnson in particular.

The new government will be pumping out the gallons of s.hite the country has been left in for at least a year before they can even start to mop up the mess. We can disagree with their decisions but we can’t suggest they don’t have to do something.

Am I a Starmer fan? No, not at all. Do I think he’s made a great start? No. But there’s a limit to my expectations given what he’s inherited. I choose to reserve final judgement of the sitting government until they’ve had a bit of time to right the wrongs; when and if the rebuild starts I’ll be looking for the normal folk in the majority to benefit as opposed to the elite few. For services to improve and quicken; for the general mood in the country to lift as the mood has been pretty bleak for the past few years.

Will they deliver? I hope so. Maybe not. But it’s pointless just attacking him barely a couple of months into a five year stint. Do we want another succession of unelected prime ministers rolling off the line? His party won a majority and so have a mandate to govern for five years. Short term pain was inevitable but they are not doing themselves too many favours, and I fear their popularity will worsen after the budget too.

Haunting Starmer out will just lead to someone else stepping up; probably not Rayner but possibly Reeves or Streeting. That would improve nothing at all. Unless they can manufacture a by-election somewhere in the Manchester area and parachute Andy Burnham in, there probably aren’t many credible candidates to take over.

 

On one hand I really respect you for putting forward unpopular opinions on here and always arguing in an even manner. You're someone I'd love to go for a pint with.

On the other so many of your opinions and points could be addressed with minimal research or understanding of a topic, which is frustrating.

 

Politics is always in flux, a week is a long time etc.. so in my opinion its premature to knock the new Labour Government too much as the country will take a long time to rebuild. However, I have never liked Starmer. I think he's both deceitful (he's lied on numerous occasions) and authoritarian (kicking out decent socialists) and not worthy of being Labour leader. He's also backed Labour into a corner with the manifesto commitment on tax, limiting Reeves' maneuverability on raising funds. The attitude of Labour on the two child benefit cap is also a disgrace in my eyes and there WILL be deaths because of the winter fuel allowance cut (which will be exploited by the media next Jan/Feb). Labour is already causing problems for itself. In essence, I have little faith in Starmer long-term to turn things around sufficiently for Labour to get voted in a second time. The electors' memories of the Tories awfulness will fade over time and although people on here are laughing at Badenoch and Jenrick now the new Tory leader may do a lot better than some suggest (a week is a long time in politics remember).
In essence, I dont know what impact the new Tory leader will have but Starmer has made a dreadful start (overall) from what was actually a poor percentage of the vote in the election. People will therefore be looking for alternatives unless there's a marked improvement in their lives. The Tories may benefit, Reform may benefit, the Lib Dems may benefit and the Greens may benefit. So its very early and we shouldn't write Labour off but I personally think they're in trouble already and have a mountain to climb.

 

Overall I agree with what you say about Starmer and the general state of the country, but I disagree on the choice of Tory leader, I can't see either of these two numpties turning anything round for them in the short medium or long term. Further, as long as things actually improve over the next 5 years (waiting lists, energy costs, river and sea water quality etc) people will remember what the Tories did and Labour should get a second term. Essential to seeing those improvements is a closer working relationship with The EU of course. The only worry I have is that the Tories will move further to the right and might eventually merge with Reform UK Ltd, ending the split vote of the right which gave Labour its majority, time for electoral reform I think.

 

I could see the lunatic fringe of the tories trying to claw back support from reform by some sort of deal, though I think it's not likely for a long time. But. If that happens, the centrist/centre right vote will ebb further to the Lib Dems and I wouldn't be surprised to see the 'one nationers' call it a day and break away and further fragment the right, something centre and left have struggled with for decades.

Its a long way out but my expectation in 5 years is we have a hung parliament. I don't see the tories able to get over the line or close, and I can see votes haemorrhaging from labour to green, the fascist party and independents unless they shore up their core vote and, most importantly, make people feel better off. Its hard to see an end to volatile political flux, and labour haven't helped themselves initially, largely out of naivety and inexperience.

To get elected, Labour have painted themselves into the tightest corner where I think they are unable to please anyone. Electorally, it was genius. But if you promise nothing, or rule out so much, the right wing press pounce even when there is nothing there and when changes are made, accusations are levelled, sometimes rightly. Sadly the completely inaccurate mantra of 'they are all the same' is well in situ in some minds so when the daily heil and torygraph draw false equivalence, it's swallowed up by people who really should know better, but just don't want to.

But the question should always remain... Would you rather have the previous government in power still?

 

I’m afraid to say, there a many, some on here included, who would. Look at the posts by people recently who were either very minimal in their posting on politics are even absent, especially in the latter stages of the last horrible lot in govt. IMO, I think the positives of this new Govt, will start to trickle through and unsurprisingly considering the last 14 years of mayhem.It was always going to be a bumpy ride considering the biasses of a largely Tory controlled and/or Tory friendly press and media. Be interesting to see where we are as a country in 2 or 3 years time.

 

I can't argue with any of that. All the more reason to reform the voting system, I'm sick of the UK being lumped in with Belarus and err... nobody else.

 

I would have received the winter fuel allowance for the first time this winter. We flew back from Lanzarote on Tuesday. I would estimate that at least 75% of the passengers were of our age or greater. They would all have been eligible for WFA, so far as I could see. Not one of us would have needed it. To continue to dole out public money indiscriminately would be an unjustifiable use of public funds. In my view it was right to withdraw it. To cry that those on the threshold will suffer hardship is really to argue that the pension credit threshold is set too low. (It might be - I don't know).

As regards Starmer, it's a nonsense to judge his administration three months in to a five-year term. Too many people are swallowing the Tory media propaganda, in my view. I'll judge him in five years' time. But I'm struggling to see what could ever justify me voting for a party led by the poisonous Generic.

 

A friend's parents were complaining about not receiving it any more. He asked if they needed it, the response was "no, but it would have been a nice bit of money towards the cruise."

 

Did they then moan about access to a doctor or the dentist?

 

Could not agree more I don't need it I normally give it to one of my granddaughters who is struggling to buy her own house along with her partner both working and the mortgage they pay is outrageous, it helps pay their fuel bill.