This Russia/Ukraine/US story..

Putin has said the following, which despite my dislike of the man is broadly correct.

 

Why can the Russians stop the Ukraine army entering a part of their country.

Surely he EU or whatever can make them leave.

 

Putin doesnt care about the EU. He needs to deliver Crimea back to the Russians, it will keep him in power and fuel his own propaganda.

 

but surely thats then breaking international law.

 

It is an interesting one from my point of view.

Russia, and indeed Putin, do have a point, up to an extent. A portion of Ukrainian citizens have effectively overthrown a democratically elected government. What's more, ethnic Russians in Ukraine have been the subject of hostilities since.

Problem is, Russia have no legal right to get involved in another country's affairs. If Ukraine slipped into civil war, unless there was an agreement with world powers, they have no legal right to do anything about it. That essentially, was Russia's point with regards to Syria and Libya.

What is clear is that, despite what anyone else may tell you, Russia hold all the cards here. There is absolutely nothing that the West, or the rest of Europe can do about it. If Russia chose to invade Eastern Ukraine this second, there is nothing we could do. And there are many reasons for this, some a great deal more obvious than others.
But make no mistake about it, Putin is not this ill-witted clown that we portray him as in the West. He is a shrewd politician and a clever man. He doesn't want a war more than anyone else. And that is why we won't get one. But it is vital for him to give a show of force here.

I anticipate Crimea will become independent and under the sphere of influence of Russia, if not completely incorporated into Russia, like parts of Georgia were/are since 2008. That is my own prediction. But I also predict a lot more unrest throughout Ukraine before then. I wouldn't say a major war between Russia and Ukraine etc, more a civil war within Ukraine.

Putin won't be intimidated by the West. And as I have said, there is nothing we can actually do. Putin says that whatever we do will backfire, and it will. I'm not pro-Putin, but so far he's outsmarted everyone.

 

It's ironic UK and USA telling Putin to not go into Ukraine when you think of the amount of countries we've invaded that we should have stayed away from.

 

Oh yes, I forgot that you don't think history is important otherwise you'd have heard of it

 

Sorry, been really busy so only just saw your post. Worrying times, Putin really is a piece of ****, but this isn't really news. The most disturbing thing is that most of the sanctions suggested are likely to hurt ordinary Russians (economic measures, complicating visa processes) far more than they will hurt Putin and his cronies. I'll try to dig out some of the more perceptive articles I've read and post them on here.

Also, a couple of key points nobody has mentioned on here. The reason why Russia needs Crimea so badly is that the naval base at Sevastopol is their only warm water port, and therefore of vital strategic importance. Putin doesn't care one jot about the Crimean people. Crimea itself is a very poor region. It's GDP is subsidised to the tune of 70% by Kiev, so it is of little economic value.

Regarding the issue of the harassment of Russian speakers in Ukraine - this is an absolute fabrication. I have relatives in Ukraine, as do most people in Russia, from East to West. Pretty much everyone in Ukraine can speak Russian, even if not everybody uses it for every day life. But most do, without any problems whatsoever. There is absolutely no discrimination against and threat to Russian speakers. When I was in the Donetsk area last summer, I heard Ukrainian in the stadium announcements, and spoken on the street once. It's about as common as hearing Welsh in Cardiff. Now think about the idea of Welsh nationalists persecuting the English speaking majority in Cardiff. It's an utterly ludicrous idea. As ludicrous as the idea of Russian speakers being persecuted in Ukraine. It's an utter lie.

 

Although Crimea was an independent country before the Russians invaded and annexed it.

The Crimean Khanate became part of Turkey in 1478 but was an autonomous region run by it's own ruler. It was taken by the Russians in 1783.

It's indigenous people were Tatars and Cossacks who were persecuted, killed or moved on, replaced by Russian settlers, workers and military personnel. That's why there are so many ethnic Russians in the area. Historically it is not Russian.