US Election

Yes, Tucker Carlson, that paragon of virtue, says he 'lost' the only copy of a dossier of evidence. The same man whose own network said that no one would should believe a word he says in order to win a court case.

 

Both countries (UK and USA) are victims of the first past the post electoral systems. It seems like madness that California awards 55 electoral college votes to a candidate that wins by 1 vote - in 2016, Clinton took 55 votes with 61.7% of the vote, she should have got 31-33 votes, and Trump 15-16 (the other 2-3 going to the Libertarian and Green candidates who polled at 3.3% and 2% respectively).

I believe that the electoral college can even go against the popular vote in the state - and cases have been recorded of this happening in the past.

 

It's all a bit of a mess really. The electoral college votes equate to the total number of congress members per state. All states have 2 senators and California for example has 53 House of Representative members, so they get 55 Electoral College votes.

The electors are not the members of congress, however, the numbers are just the same. I'm not completely sure how the delegates are picked. Technically these delegates do not have to vote with the majority in most states (although in some states it is a law) - in 2016 there was about 10 I believe 'Faithless Electors' that went against their state's majority - but that's the first time it's happened in years and a big anomaly. Many of these electors faced repercussions for it. One faithless elector actually voted for someone that got 0 votes in the whole country (they didn't even vote for themselves)

The house of representatives is elected every 2 years and their numbers are based off the census that's taken every 10 years (so in 2022 the delegates are likely to change). The senate is always 2 per state, no matter the size of the state and a 3rd of the senate is elected every 2 years, meaning 6 year terms. Unless there's a special election (death, retirement etc.) a single state will elect one senator at once and have one election cycle where there are no senators up for election every 6 years (I hope that makes sense?)

The issue with this is that presidential votes in smaller states count for a lot more than in bigger states (essentially 3x the votes they 'should' have if it's based on population, if they have a single house representative). Whereas 53 to 55 is a much smaller increase, percentage wise. For example, a vote in Wyoming is 'worth' almost 4x as much as a vote in Florida, due to the electoral college delegates vs population.

As for California, Yes Clinton only got 61.73% of the vote (Trump got 31.62%) but that's still a margin of over 4 million people. It wasn't really 'close' per se.

 

Surely not simply believing what you are told and instead looking at the evidence for yourself to assess the credibility of the source and validity of the information is at the opposite end of the spectrum to believing "any old sh 1t" as you put it?

 

Well if you were as well researched as you would like to think; you’d have understood my post.

But I’ll spell it out:
Every nut job, conspiracy theory believer, flat earther, QAnon follower on the internet claims to ‘have done their own research’.

 

https://cairnsnews.org/2020/10/16/c...t-reset-dictatorship-australia-is-part-of-it/

Can you actually see something like that happening? That's top tier of crazy.

 

In theory, yes.

The issue is that it’s impossible to look at the evidence yourself as you put it, because things can quite easily be falsified. Look at that ‘email’ to Hunter Biden from the Ukrainian guy. I’ve never seen something as obviously fake and yet people still bought it. The guys name was spelt wrong for **** sake. His email address was v.pozharskyi.ukraine@gmail.com for **** sake - it’s just so far removed from being legitimate and yet people bought it.

 

I don’t need you to spell anything out for me. I’m not talking about conspiracy theories or about what anyone else claims to have done or not done. All I have said is that, what appears to be a credible witness has come forward with evidence that Joe Biden was involved in his son’s overseas dealings with Ukraine and China and that the evidence has been verified by the FBI which has opened a criminal case against Hunter Biden. This can be easily verified but I can send you the links if you need me to?

The other thing I’ve said is that Trump won the 2016 election despite the polls at the time having Hillary Clinton significantly in front. I assume you don’t need me to provide you supporting evidence of that?

 

I have no interest in your ‘evidence’, or indeed the story which will disappear in the same way that Hillary’s email story did. The FBI made a very big noise about opening that investigation remember

I was only commenting on the phrase you used, which is a common belief amongst all manner of nutjobs.

if you’re right, we’ll all congratulate you. But if you really think you’ve discovered something that’s being hushed up, whether the story is true or not, well you can decide for yourself whether that makes you look more like a nut job or an expert.

 

I think this year it will widen slightly - purely for the Clinton factor in 2016. I think Trump will stay at a similar level but Biden will gain 5% or so from Third party votes. I think you’re right though that in the next few years it will start to close. I can’t see it turning red any time soon though.

One issue for the republicans is that many democrats are leaving the big coastal cities and moving to more rural (& cheaper) areas - partly due to the rise in work from home over the last few years - places that the republicans previously had a stronghold. This is partly why many forecasts have places like Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and even Texas in some very ‘optimistic’ predictions turning blue. People are moving there from places like California and New York, but their politics aren’t changing.

 

That’s not the evidence I’m talking about though. I’m not in a position to see the emails or investigate for myself what money was or wasn’t transferred. I’m only talking specifically about the Bobulinski allegations and the evidence I’m looking at is....

1. Does Tony Bobulinski exist? - I’ve seen videos of him being interviewed on TV (even though it was Fox News)
2. Is he who he claims to be? No-one has yet come forward from the Biden camp to deny the meetings that he claims took place happened or that they were in a business venture with him. I haven’t looked up the company details to confirm the company details but I suspect I could do and again, no-one has disputed the existence of the company.
3. Have the FBI opened a criminal case against Hunter Biden? - I have read reports from several different news outlets that I believe to be reliable. Could the newspapers be lying?... Yes I suppose so, but on balance of probability I believe they aren’t.

I have also seen evidence of Joe Biden bragging about getting the Ukrainian Prosecutor fired who was investigating the Ukrainian company that his son was a board member at. Could that video be a fake? Yes it could be, but having watched it several times I don’t believe it is.

Do I know Trump will win the election on Tuesday? No of course not
Do I think there is a good chance he will win? Yes, which is why I have placed a substantial bet on that outcome.

I also think Barnsley might beat Watford tomorrow against the bookies odds and I’ll probably have a bet on that too

 

Pie.

on the money as usual.

 

If Trump loses, is he going to gaol?

 

Has everyone forgotten the "Quid pro quo" scandal that saw Trump impeached - and that only failed because of the Republican majority in the senate. I don't know the rights or wrongs of the Biden rumour, but that's what it is at this stage. Trump's dishonesty was real and proved. I would vote for anyone who wasn't Trump - with the possible exception of Faridge - that would be like trying to decide whether to slash your wrists or jump off a high building.