US Election

Fair enough, he chickened out, but you must realise that had he gone to Vietnam the US would have won the greatest victory in the history of victories!!

 

It might not matter too much if you already live in a bomb shelter.

 

In 12 months, if Harris wins, I'll have spent 3 weeks exploring Southern California and Nevada for my holidays and be planning a trip to Washington and Oregon for the year after.

If Trump wins, it'll either be Canada or Asia.

 

He’d have ended it in a day. Gone straight to Ho Chi - a great guy!

 

I thought that was blindingly obvious...what I was pointing out is that America prides itself as being the ultimate classless society and yet all the politicians obsess about is class.

 

First ever female president or first ever criminally charged president. Whoever wins it's history making.

Tell ya what the way America do elections and with how messed up their politics is, it makes Bojo and his garden party screw up look small fry.

 

He'd have contested the result. The US didn't lose the war, they won - It was a great victory, a beautiful victory but the media don't tell you that. They lie. But I can tell you that when I was in the war even the commies used to say 'he's a great guy' and wished they'd had me in their own army. I was a great soldier, a fantastic soldier and did I say we won? Well we did. We won easily. In fact it was the easiest victory this nation has ever had and Ill tell you, if it hadn't been for me we could have lost. But we didn't. It was a beautiful win.

 

To a tee.

 

I just don't get US politics. Whatever basket case we may get, they just go further to a power of a 1000.

What I find even more disappointing is the growing media schism where US related stories, political ones especially get rammed down our throats and yet our nearest neighbours and European allies we hear virtually nothing about despite their proximity and importance.

I've a feeling Harris might actually win this. The Trump rabble seem less, despite the increasing vocal nature of the most committed "supporters" and the media's insistence that its a close race and Trump is winning support from everywhere.

I just hope we don't have to endure him again given the damage he would impart on the world would be even greater than before.

 

I think Harris will win too.

 

Trump has shortened to 1.63 on the Betting Exchange - giving an implied chance of about 62% of winning.

He had drifted to 1.8 or 55% when the Iowa news broke the other day, but he's shortened again.

 

Are betting odds usually a good indicator in elections?....I've really no idea.

 

The exchanges and markets usually are on events such as this yeah.

 

Saw an interview a couple of days ago with some French guy who had $40million on Trump but couldn't pull out...

 

A betting market is based purely on volume of bets, not likely outcome. All it would take are a few huge bets and you could easily skew the odds. I fully expect there's been some collusion to bet on Trump to aid his martyr message if and when he loses.

 

General betting markets yes, Exchanges no.

The Betfair Exchange is betting against each other, rather than a bookie. Obviously a bookies market is skewed drastically, as every time England are favourites for the euros shows.

But the Exchange is a true reflection of the odds.

 

But odds are made up, no? It's a guess. Polls have been out in 2016 and 2020 so they aren't necessarily accurate either.

 

They'll be based on opinion polls etc - like the jump when the Iowa news broke on Friday.

Exchanges aren't "set" odds like a bookie. You aren't playing against the house.

 

They're a true reflection of the consensus as to what the odds are. They're not a true reflection of the actual odds, which are obviously unknowable.