We're favorites to be relegated again

Whats all this then, are they getting crowds of 30'000 and sponsorship deals with some of the biggest company's in the world ?

I thought clubs could only spend the moneys they generate ?

 

Haha, I'm for real.

I'll run you through a little example to help you out. Portsmouth came down from the premier league and were in big financial difficulties. If they had been able to get through this with their squad intact then they're a good bet to get promotion again because of the quality of their squad.

Similarly, if they go into administration and lose all their players then they're a very good bet for relegation, which is what happened. Do you think that the bookies priced them at ~7/1 for promotion but also gave odds of perhaps ~30/1 for relegation? Of course not, the odds for winning promotion and the odds for relegation are not always inversely proportional. They were an unknown entity so the bookies could not take the risk. To remove risk, you shorten the odds.

Just as no one had any idea how Pompey would do, neither does anyone know how Bournemouth might do. They might do a Southampton and get back to back promotions or they might do a Peterborough and go straight back down. They are also an unknown entity so the odds will match that. They're not offering short odds for promotion because they think they're a good team, they're offering short odds because they're covering their backs.

If you look at Barnsley, we've been in this league for 7 seasons. They know what we're about. We've struggled season after season without really showing any ambition. Therefore, they're offering long odds for promotion. Similarly, they know we know how to survive, so will probably be offering longer odds than some others that could take a real nose dive, a la Bournemouth.

Just because we have the longest odds of the 19 teams that are listed, that doesn't make us favourites for relegation. For a start, there's 5 teams not listed. They think we won't go up, as history shows is likely. They could just as easily think we won't go down, again as history has shown.

If you think bookies just rank teams on how good they and all odds just reflect that then you need to wake up to the betting industry. They use complex algorithms that output odds that take into account numerous factors, one of which will be experience of relegation battles.

This is what happens, so no, I'm not thick.

 

Keep Smiling...

 

That's not how betting works is it?

 

Keep Smiling...

 

I'm just glad we are in the betting. Couldn't give a **** where.

 

Yes, initially algorithms using complex formula but as punters bet the odds will change as the bookies attempt to keep the book even, hedging the risk. I nearly went to work for SkyBet.

 

So what?

We were favourites for relegation in 1996 as well.

 

Re: So what?

based on what exactly? spending power? at this stage they have no idea of personnel size of squads, management etc.

 

Based on

"its only little Barnsley, who the f*ck are they anyway?"

 

Take a look at the betting for both the league outright and for relegation before you start insulting people, you will see that the bookies sometimes have teams in a different order for the two. For example, a couple of years ago, they had us 2nd favourites for relegation behind Millwall I believe, and yet we were the rank outsiders to win the league.

 

Quite often the volume of bets on a team will influence the market. If statistically x% of the fans from a team back traditionally their side for promotion then Wednesday will have more money bet on them than Barnsley. The odds will reflect that. It might not mean that Wednesday are more likely to win promotion, but that the bookies will lose more if they do...

 

100/1 against winning the league sounds about right seeing as we technically don't have a manager. If Flitcroft signs up those odds will shorten given 2013 form.

 

Nice one, I agree. The bookies don't know what our team will be next year, so will alter odds as things materialise.