Who Follows Corbyn?

‘They’re all the same, they’re all liars, so I’m voting for them that’ll get us art o’ Europe. I’m not racist but all these immigrants are killing the country’

This attitude is being expertly milked by the right. And so we will return a government that will annihilate the north and other working class areas. Then in five years they will believe whatever ******** the press lay the blame on for the nhs, police, schools and pretty much everything being on its knees and out to tender.

 

Evidence to support the latter?

 

Coming back to the original point of who follows Corbyn... my instinct is Corbyn will have to be surgically removed yet when you look at many of those in the shadow cabinet (if they don't lose their seats)… good god, that's a frighteningly anorexic pool to pick from that may actually be able to fashion some reason, while aiming a strategy at a wider electorate rather than the narrowing puritanism.

But.... if Johnson gets a big enough majority, I think two of the things you will see in the mid term "once Brexit is done"... is 1, changes to ward boundaries to "reduce the cost" of parliament (targeting labour areas adversely) and 2, union funding. With a majority (if anything like 68, they will get things through with ease) they can weaken oppositions and strengthen the chances of blocking change by rigging the system even worse.

 

Revert back ?
We’ve not had centre ground since Harold Wilson , it’s been left or right since .
I hope you weren’t intimating Blair was centre ground ?

 

The centre ground taken by the last 2 leaders who also failed to get elected?

not saying what’s right or wrong but anyone who genuinely believes that the Labour manifesto is ‘far left’ needs to look closer at our neighbours, and anyone who thinks Corbyn is the main reason Labour are unpopular is ignoring plenty of recent evidence re previous leaders.

 

What was Milliband guilty of? eating a bacon sandwich wrong ffs. If jesus took over as leader they would do an expose on mary magdeline probably!

 

Normally the middle ground is where it is won or lost. Blair moved to the centre and won. The tories slid back to the centre and regained control. However this election is different owing to brexit and the power of social media. The best way to achieve change is by getting in power and that means taking the centre ground.

 

I work in Denmark and Sweden and, although you are probably right with Denmark, the Swedes wouldn't tolerate Corbyn either.

Europeans are accepting of coalition governments so, by default, most parties move to the centre regardless. Coalition governments allow you to select the least worst governing body (which is how it should be) - unfortunately with the echo chamber of Facebook and lurches to the left or right, the Election is going to be extremist choices and Brexit all over again ("we won, you didn't"). Labour have played their hand completely wrong.

 

I do.

 

The YouGov poll is bizarre. It has taken weeks to compile, has therefore got to be hopelessly out of date, yet the media have run with it en masse. There was another poll yesterday which had the Tory lead cut to 7 points (6 points equating to a hung parliament) yet it got the "by the way" treatment in comparison. There's no way Boris will get anywhere near a 68 seat majority.

 

I agree with that last sentence.

Not a cat in hells chance of that happening.

This isn’t over by any stretch.

 

More ******** headlines for the masses.

You would think the Tories wouldn`t have to do this is if they thought Jezza was as crap as the make out. It would be a walk in the park just turn up election.

 

The problem is how you attempt to overlay poll data with the makeup of such a diverse ward map that is affected by the most diverse range of choices we've had at a GE for decades and the distortion of political and media point scoring.

I know many of the polling companies and I can say they all largely felt down on themselves for getting results largely wrong in the last 3 GE's. YouGov in particular have spent a fortune on changing how they model a GE profile compared to their usual omnibus style polls.

Whether its accurate or not, I'm not entirely sure, and my initial instinct is that they may have overweighted the Brexit factor slightly. I think turnout is also going to be a large factor and that is unbelievably hard to predict given the timing of this election and seasonal weather.

Aside from that the polling isn't too dissimilar (though lesser I think) to 2017 where Labour made gains as it became evident it was a 2 party election. The difference are the muddying of issues, but the choice is now very much do you want Johnson to have a majority or not? Maybe this poll is a reality check for the non far right parties to say seriously, if we don't work together here, its game over.

 

if yougov have spent a fortune changing the way they model a GE im interested in why are they trumpeting such a result yesterday then... could it have anything to do with their left leaning confirmation bias....

 

It's not YouGov trumpeting, they've completed very sizeable fieldwork and this is what they perceive is the potential outcome 2 weeks out. It's an extremely difficult thing to predict... but this is their prediction. Only time will tell if their methodology is right or if they've got it wrong.

 

but plenty are trumpeting the results, wouldn't it just be easy to say the way they modelled the data isn't as predictable as they think, something Dominic cummins alluded to i believe, its futile me getting angry with it though, the daily Heil et al will run with this as long and ans loud as they can.

 

Only one poll counts, exit poll

 

YouGov simply do the polling and give a view. How the media and those who commissioned the project choose to report it is entirely up to them.

and the thing with the right shouting about this is it may well mobilize opposition or impinge the right vote as they cant be bothered thinking its pointless. That's where the Cummings blog comes into play, not that he thinks its inaccurate. It suits his agenda to pretend its close to mobilize the leave voters who we were told had never voted before... if indeed they are still alive.

 

oh i agree there, there was only 1 thing yesterdays illegal intervention by Cummins was intended to achieve. panic the blue rinse brigade into ensuring they vote. They are quite confident they have rattled enough cages of the "get bexit dun ah just want art" brigade.

 

I like Ed...as you say he's a decent guy....I've got to say though I'm really surprised to read his leaflet that was delivered yesterday....in it he says " we need to sort Brexit. I've voted nine times in Parliament for a deal to do that"
I'm not not sure what he is referring to but he has voted against all of the deals offered to Parliament that I can see.