Why are Labour trying to reduce their election majority

Personally, I hope they don't get a massive majority, they might then be more inclined towards electoral reform.

 

I don't know if you've seen the fun in French politics since the election was announced, but it makes our politics look calm. The left parties have formed a coalition, except for one party leader who was kicked out. The leader of Les Republics (Chirac's old party) announced an agreement with the Front National, then the rest of the party kicked him out so he barricaded himself into their headquarters until a deputy with a key could be found. And more that I can't remember now.

 

There are several ways of doing it. IIRC Scotland have a local MSP and a list. So you select someone to represent the area and candidates from a list who go together to form the Parliament. Wales do something differently.

But generally, with PR you would combine the constituencies that we have now into a larger area (say South Yorkshire) and that area gets more MPs on a proportional basis - so if you get Labour 40%, Tory 20%, Reform 20%, LibDem 10%, Green 10%, you might get 10 MPs in South Yorkshire - 4 Labour, 2 Tory, 2 Reform, 1 Libdem and 1 Green - who then represent the entire area. You could ensure that the public get a better service by having professional constituency staff who deal with incoming casework and escalate to MPs as necessary (rather than the current system where they are employed by the MPs and effectively made redundant if the MP loses their seat).

As of 2019, there were 14 MPs in South Yorkshire - 11 Labour and 3 Tory - although the votes were more split than FPTP shows.

 

I nearly posted this the other day after Sky news spent the full day speaking with people in Grimsby and Cleethorpes ahead of the leaders debate.

The suggested expectation is that a stack of votes doesn't translate into seats with FPTP. And thats tended to be true given the centre and left is a more fractured coalition than the centre to right (and beyond). It's always been based on a strong core tory vote. It's always been based on Labour facing competition from Lib Dem, Green, SNP or PC (where applicable), socialist or nationalist independents.

2018, BXP didn't stand against the tories and that meant the right vote stacked giving Johnson a victory that was highly skewed.

Reform has now entered the stage. Farage, a bit like Johnson but far more ideological, sways people. He doesn't care what he says. He'll cover over detail with bluster. He'll deny truth when confronted. But he has successfully convinced people to vote for him in large numbers before, and when the country had a strong conservative party.

I'm not for one minute suggesting Reform can win the election or get anywhere near close to it. But.... i fear we're getting closer to a perfect storm. We have inward migration at a very high level. We've had 14 years where the party in power have trashed just about every aspect of public life. Misused statistics, lied openly, had myriad sleaze and corruption charges. And the country per capita, is worse off and increasingly so. The general malaise thats been allowed to seed in public mind is "they are all the same". Labour are campaigning on the basis everything is broken and it will take a decade to get rebuilt. Greens and SNP are targeting Labour now because they see them as their biggest threat. Lib Dems are very focussed on seats in the south where they perceive they are the closest alternative to the Tories. And I suspect there is a loose pact between labour and Lib Dems to let the other get on with it.

The brexit divide hasn't healed, nor can it until it is talked about openly. Looking at human reactions from multiple sources, the tories are clearly done. When you get to the stage people laugh at you rather than argue with you... it's over. And every day, their punch is bruised. In just the last few days, d day woes continue, the manifesto fell flat, they continue to lie, unemployment rose, NHS waiting lists got longer, the economy flat lined. Sunak snubbed by EU leaders with no bilateral talks at the G7, tory chairman selection debacle, illegal gambling from Sunaks chief aide, Mordaunts woeful performance on last nights debate, Sunak looking broken on the leaders debate, stories of fragmented door to door campaigning and lower than expected tory donations.

People have given up. The red wall tory voters i suspect will flip straight to Reform. It's for Labour in those areas to retain their core. I'm not sure that will happen as effectively as they hope/expect. In the NW and Mids you have the Galloway/Gaza effect chipping away at Labours base. You have coastal towns and cities who were some of the highest leave voting areas in the country who have been lied to and failed by the tories.

But the Labour proposition looks really weak. When people have been ground down for 14 years, they want hope. Starmer isn't obviously offering that. Not through personality or through policy. Yet the media are aiding the perception that it's a foregone conclusion and the tories are naively suggesting its going to be a supermajority. Inadvertently the tories are encouraging people to have a free hit on who they want to vote for as it's not going to matter.

In significant parts of the country, I think that may well be Reform, as frightening as that is. This country somehow voted for Brexit when there was no obvious evidence it would improve things. They voted for Johnson when there was significant evidence he was a liar who coveted power for no other reason that it made him feel good.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest now if Farage was trusted by too many people and they finally got a foothold in the commons. Difficult to know numbers, but my gut suggests if the tory vote truly collapses it would reach double figures.

Worrying times.

 

I really think reform will win more seats than we all think. Certainly a larger share of the vote

Labour will lose to reform in Barnsley, im almost certain of that and in many other Brexit areas.

the election after this one will see further shift to reform as they normalize and embolden racism, bigotry and intolerance.

there may be a pact between the remnants of the tories and reform depending on when the my sack sunak elect a Brexit nutter as leader, I doubt
Farage will hang around for too long, even if elected, actually working isn’t what he’s here for

 

Pretty much sums up my thoughts. I've articulated the fact on here several times that Labour HAVE to address some big issues in power or there will be hell to pay in the 2029ish election but a lot of people on the left/centre left seem blase about things simply because we're getting rid of the Tories. On its own that's just not enough. The prospect of more disillusion, more hopelessness and a sense that things have not got any better will further splinter politics in Britain and will drive people into the arms of populists like Farage. The guy is really dangerous but he's slick, says things that resonate and appeals to people who are totally dispirited. If ever we need a Labour government with real answers for marginalised people its now. Based on what I've heard from Labour though I'm very concerned.

 

I've said this a few times. Oppositions often tend to fight the coming election how in retrospect they feel they should have fought the previous one.

I understand why Labour are doing what they are doing. But I don't think they are reading the room fully. The tories are done, its obvious to anyone. But you can't just rely on people moving away from negative... You have to give them something positive too. Its such a small insipid manifesto.

I still think they should get a majority but I don't think it will be Blair territory.

I also don't think scrutiny on Reform will help that much either. Bluster, deceit and fostering hate of minorities is enough for significant parts of our electorate.

 

Really, I Can't see any chance of Labour getting beat in Barnsley. On the whole it's very much a pig with a red rosette area.

 

It’s not a Labour area it’s an anti-tory area though. Turns out if you put the tories in with a different badge and even more tory policies people are stupid enough to not see that party as tories.

 

The Tories got a big majority last time when partly the Brexit Party caused a splintering of the Labour vote. Now the Tories have completely collapsed in just 5 years. Its not inconceivable a similar collapse could happen to Labour in 5 years too. Labour have built, it seems to me, a coalition based on 'we're more efficient and sensible than the Tories' and its working to an extent but the electorate is becoming increasingly volatile - hence this impending Tory collapse. Labour in government will be fair game for all if things dont seem to be improving and the coalition of votes that gets them in will evaporate completely if genuine 'CHANGE' doesn't happen. Labour are walking a tightrope if they're seen not to solve some problems and many will be impatient with them and wont give them 10 years as Starmer seems to think. They could be out of power again in 5 years, completely broken and politics could easily be even more toxic if underlying decline and peoples' hopelessness has not been addressed. In my opinion.

 

I do worry, hopefully irrationally, that Barnsley will embarrass itself like it did with the EU referendum and show the country that the town is full of gullible, immigrant-hating knuckle draggers by giving Reform a high percentage of the vote.

I really hope I'm wrong.

 

I always go and cast my vote anyway but I do feel the need to push a few extra friends and family to do the same. I don't expect Reform to take Barnsley however complacency can be a killer.

 

I remember the EU referendum and I got a load of leaflets through from the leave lot and door knocks too but didn't get a single piece of communication from remain. Since then I've noticed that at all elections I get ukip, reform, Tories and independents all putting things through the letter box and knocks on the door from some of them too. Conservative and independent at the last election.
Not had a single door knocks from a labour candidate in over a decade and don't remember a leaflet either

Apathy is the biggest problem imo

 

3 different people have told me they’re voting for Reform in the last week. I didn’t ask them either, they all brought it up. One told me he expects Farage to be leader of the Conservatives in 2 years time. For whatever reason plenty of working class people seem to think he’s one of them, in much the same way they did with Boris.

However. I still think Labour will win comfortably as I think Reform mainly will eat into the Tory vote.

There’s a very real possibility that Labour end up with a huge majority despite getting a significantly smaller percentage of the vote than they did in 2017 & maybe even smaller than 2010 but of course that’s the voting system we have.

I am expecting a very poor turnout though and I think apathy is the right word.

 

Outcome of the election is gonna be an unpolished turd anyway. Labour will sit on their hands doing nowt but blaming the Tories until 1 month before the next general election and claim they need more time.

When in fact they should already have legislation prepared to push through parliament. It's not as though they haven't had 14 year or so to decide on what to change.

We're all gonna be underwhelmed, yet most folks on here will defend them blindly. Me, I'm voting for them as the most palatable option not because of brilliant policies and ideas.

 

Tories are still blaming Labour 14 years on. Whoever takes charge has massive problems to overcome and yes some of that is down to this government's policies - from my point of view teacher retention has to be addressed. Schools have become so toxic it's unreal

 

Hate to say it but Reform-Uk are all over the Borough.
They've got another big thing planned tomorrow in Tarn Centre.
Labour nowhere to be seen.
Is this because Labour are taking things for granted?
Can't think of anything worse than NON Paying Council Tax David White standing in Parliament for me

 

It's very difficult - when you remove the context - to argue against much of their manifesto. The issues are the spirit in which they're being introduced but also the completely unrealistic expectation that most could/would ever come in to force.

It's easy to point at problems. It's not easy to fix them.

 

Please everyone vote Reform. And if that does not convince all here in Scotland that Independence is the way ahead then nothing will.
England slowly but surely drifting further to the right and this is not a good sign.